Harris Ahead of Trump in 2024 Election Forecast

In a recent CNBC Fed Survey, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the frontrunner in the 2024 presidential election, surpassing former President Donald Trump in the eyes of experts. The survey, conducted among 27 investment strategists, economists, and fund managers, revealed that 48% of respondents believe Harris is more likely to win, compared to 41% who favor Trump.

This shift in perception comes after the first and possibly only debate between Harris and Trump, held in September. The previous survey in July had predicted a Trump victory, with 50% of respondents in favor of the former president. However, with Biden dropping out of the race and endorsing Harris, the tide seems to be turning in her favor.

As the election draws closer, both candidates have been outlining their economic platforms. Harris aims to focus on growing the middle class, lowering consumer costs, and cracking down on corporate “price gouging.” On the other hand, Trump has been advocating for extending his first-term tax cuts, imposing tariffs on imports, and cutting back on infrastructure investments made by the Biden administration.

While 56% of respondents believe a Trump presidency would be better for the stock market, the outlook shifts when considering the broader economy, with 44% favoring Trump and 41% favoring Harris. In terms of overall impact on the country, 52% believe Harris would be better for the United States, compared to 37% who prefer Trump.

Experts have raised concerns about the economic policies proposed by both candidates, with some suggesting that divided government may be the best outcome to prevent negative economic consequences. The Federal Reserve’s role in the economy has also been a point of discussion, with 100% of respondents expecting Harris to respect the central bank’s independence, compared to only 42% for Trump.

As the election approaches, the presidential race is ranked as the sixth most concerning risk to the U.S. economy, with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions topping the list. With the Fed expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting, the economic landscape remains uncertain as voters weigh their options for the future of the country.